Reality Check

SPACE.com — Asteroid With Chance of Hitting Earth in 2029 Now Being Watched ‘Very Carefully’

This article:

Asteroid With Chance of Hitting Earth in 2029 Now Being Watched ‘Very Carefully’
By Robert Roy Britt
Senior Science Writer
posted: 24 December 2004
09:58 am ET

States that the risk of impact from 2004 MN4, an asteroid known as “Apophis” now has an increased chance of hitting Earth, and is now roughly 1-in-45.

Update, Dec. 25, 9:47 p.m. ET: The risk of an impact by asteroid 2004 MN4 went up slightly on Saturday, Dec. 25. It is now pegged at having a 1-in -45 chance of striking the planet on April 13, 2029. That’s up from 1-in-63 late on Dec. 24, and 1-in-300 early on Dec. 24.

Astronomers still stress that it is very likely the risk will be reduced to zero with further observations. And even as it stands with present knowledge, the chances are 97.8 percent the rock will miss Earth.

A 97.8 percent chance of missing the Earth is good news. The odds of it hitting are the bad news. Basically, you have a 1-in-300,000 chance of being hit by lightning, and yet roughly 67 people are killed each year by lightning, and another 300 are seriously injured.

Lightning strikes and kills many more people in any given year than, for example tornadoes do, however, in the last couple of years many people have been killed by tornadoes. In 2008, so far, at least 54 people have been killed by tornadoes to day (this number might be higher, I couldn’t find good statistics on this yet).

The article goes on to say the following:

The asteroid’s risk rating a possible impact scenario on April 13, 2029 has now been categorized as a 4 on the Torino Scale. The level 4 rating — never before issued — is reserved for “events meriting concern.”

For those of you unfamiliar with the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, it is a 0-10 rating scale, with 4 being the top of the “yellow scale”. Basically it means “be on alert”. The next number up, 5 is in the orange scale.

Scientists have yet to make a determination that this is a ‘dangerous’ interaction, and yet, they will say in “scientific terms” that if this particular asteroid hits a certain “space keyhole” the asteroid has a 100% chance of hitting us on the next go-around, about 2036.

Essentially, this asteroid is a smaller rock, and probably won’t cause a global disaster, but will certainly “rock the planet” - to coin a phrase. Localized damage could be significant in the region struck. At this point, I don’t know of anyone that has publicly accomplished the calculations on exact time it “could strike” or where, simply because most are writing this off as a “near miss”.

At this point, I won’t predict anything, since I have not personally run the numbers yet, but I will be doing that within a couple of years as data comes in.

But, I will say this, IF the asteroid hits the “keyhole” it will most definitely be upgraded to an 8 on the Torino scale. My gut feeling is that this will probably happen, but we can’t base predictions of objects affected by gravity on “gut feelings”, and need to stick to science. I’ll leave it at that, for now.

But, I strongly suggest everyone begin learning about the Torino Scale, this asteroid and the possible impact implications for Planet Earth, since you have just about 21 years left to be in a safe location!